— Researcher and Professor · RAND
Pedro Nascimento de Lima
Engineer at RAND. My research goal is to help policymakers make life-saving decisions using computational modeling.
Reach me at plima at rand dot org.
New Research
2026 Simpler Is Better For Autograders: Achieving Cost-Effective LLM Evaluations for Open-Ended Tasks ↗ 2026 The best screening test is the one that gets followed up on ↗ 2026 A Framework for Evaluating Implementation, Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Wastewater and Environmental Surveillance ↗ 
My Research
View all research →Featured Stream
Cancer Early Detection & Prevention
Microsimulation and cost-effectiveness analysis to improve cancer screening, reduce disparities, and inform clinical guidelines.
2026
The best screening test is the one that gets followed up on
Gastroenterology
2026
CRC-SPIN Version 3.0: An Updated Policy Model for Colorectal Cancer Screening That Includes the Serrated Pathway
JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute
2026
Response to Piscitello et Al
JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute
Featured Stream
Pandemic Preparedness & Response
Decision support tools and surveillance systems for policymakers responding to infectious disease threats.
2026
2025
2025
The Case For Sustaining Wastewater Surveillance Capabilities In The US
Health Affairs Forefront
Other Research Streams
Research
Equity & Society
How social determinants and structural factors shape health outcomes, and which policies promote equity.
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Methods
Modeling & Simulation
Microsimulation, agent-based, and epidemic models for understanding complex systems and evaluating policy interventions.
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Methods
Robust Decision Making
Frameworks for making decisions under deep uncertainty — finding strategies robust across many plausible futures.
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Methods
Causal Inference
Evaluating methods for estimating policy effects from observational data.
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Methods
Tools & Packages
Open-source R packages and software supporting reproducible research and applied methods.
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What I've been writing about
Topics with the most publications in the past two years.