— Researcher and Professor · RAND
Pedro Nascimento de Lima
Engineer at RAND. My research goal is to help policymakers make life-saving decisions using computational modeling.
Reach me at plima at rand dot org.
New Research
2026 Uncertainty Aware Decision Support with Computationally Expensive Simulation Models: A Case Study of HIV Intervention Scenarios ↗ 2026 Simpler Is Better For Autograders: Achieving Cost-Effective LLM Evaluations for Open-Ended Tasks ↗ 2026 The best screening test is the one that gets followed up on ↗ 
My Research
View all research →Featured Stream
Cancer Early Detection & Prevention
Microsimulation and cost-effectiveness analysis to improve cancer screening, reduce disparities, and inform clinical guidelines.
2026
The best screening test is the one that gets followed up on
Gastroenterology
2026
CRC-SPIN Version 3.0: An Updated Policy Model for Colorectal Cancer Screening That Includes the Serrated Pathway
JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute
2026
Response to Piscitello et Al
JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute
Featured Stream
Pandemic Preparedness & Response
Decision support tools and surveillance systems for policymakers responding to infectious disease threats.
2026
Other Research Streams
Research
Equity & Society
How social determinants and structural factors shape health outcomes, and which policies promote equity.
→
Methods
Modeling & Simulation
Microsimulation, agent-based, and epidemic models for understanding complex systems and evaluating policy interventions.
→
Methods
Robust Decision Making
Frameworks for making decisions under deep uncertainty — finding strategies robust across many plausible futures.
→
Methods
Causal Inference
Evaluating methods for estimating policy effects from observational data.
→
Methods
Tools & Packages
Open-source R packages and software supporting reproducible research and applied methods.
→
What I've been writing about
Topics with the most publications in the past two years.