Pedro Nascimento de Lima, PhD

Researcher at RAND Corporation and Professor at RAND School of Public Policy

Pedro Nascimento de Lima

I’m an engineer at RAND, a non-partisan research institution dedicated to improving policy through research and analysis.

I spend most of my time doing research that can save lives or make us more secure - either by preventing cancer, mitigating the worst consequences of pandemics, or preventing AI from causing harm.

You can reach me at plima at rand dot org.

Research Streams

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Cancer Early Detection & Prevention

Using microsimulation models and cost-effectiveness analysis to improve cancer screening programs, reduce disparities, and inform clinical guidelines.

The triple-effect of colorectal cancer screening: reducing deaths, government spending and mortality disparities
JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute • 2025
Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Colorectal Cancer Screening With a Blood Test That Meets the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Coverage Decision
Gastroenterology • 2024
16 publications

Pandemic Preparedness & Response

Developing decision support tools and surveillance systems to help policymakers respond effectively to infectious disease threats under deep uncertainty.

The Health and Economic Impacts of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Address COVID-19: A Decision Support Tool for State and Local Policymakers
RAND Tool • 2020
Strategies to Improve Detection of Novel Pandemic Pathogens: Cost Versus Detection Performance for Promising Pathogen-Agnostic Detection Workflows
RAND Research Report • 2025
16 publications

Equity & Society

Examining how social determinants and structural factors shape health outcomes and economic opportunities to identify policies that promote equity.

COMPASS: A Framework for Navigating Systemic Risks
RAND Working Paper • 2025
The triple-effect of colorectal cancer screening: reducing deaths, government spending and mortality disparities
JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute • 2025
12 publications

Modeling & Simulation

Developing computational models including microsimulation, agent-based, and epidemic models to understand complex systems and evaluate policy interventions.

The triple-effect of colorectal cancer screening: reducing deaths, government spending and mortality disparities
JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute • 2025
Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Colorectal Cancer Screening With a Blood Test That Meets the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Coverage Decision
Gastroenterology • 2024
34 publications

Robust Decision Making

Applying frameworks for decision-making under deep uncertainty to identify strategies that perform well across a wide range of plausible futures.

Stress-testing US colorectal cancer screening guidelines: Decennial colonoscopy from age 45 is robust to natural history uncertainty and colonoscopy sensitivity assumptions
Medical Decision Making • 2025
Incorporating social determinants of health into agent-based models of HIV transmission: methodological challenges and future directions
Frontiers in Epidemiology • 2025
7 publications

Causal Inference

Evaluating causal inference methods for estimating policy effects from observational data.

Assessing Bias and Precision in State Policy Evaluations: A Comparative Analysis of Time-Varying Estimators Using Policy Simulations
arXiv • 2025
Identifying Optimal Methods for Addressing Confounding Bias When Estimating the Effects of State-level Policies
Epidemiology • 2023
3 publications

Tools & Packages

Creating open-source software tools and R packages to support reproducible research and enable researchers to apply advanced methods.

The Health and Economic Impacts of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Address COVID-19: A Decision Support Tool for State and Local Policymakers
RAND Tool • 2020
The Future of Artificial Intelligence Policy Is the Future of Competing Demands
RAND Visualization • 2025
8 publications