Comparing COVID-19 Epidemiological Outcomes For Nonpharmaceutical Interventions In The U.S.


We have developed a COVID-19 disease transmission model to help policymakers compare epidemiological outcomes of different nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Our model can help predict the timing of peaks in cases, and when to expect a multiple waves based on when and which NPI levels are implemented. In this talk we describe the key epidemiological traits and uncertainties of COVID-19 transmission dynamics, and how they have been considered and evaluated by our epidemiological model. We compare outcomes of different NPI levels and the timing of when they are implemented, and discuss the reasons for which NPIs work best and are robust to the uncertainties in terms of health outcomes.

Nov 7, 2020 1:00 PM — Nov 13, 2020 3:00 PM
Pedro Nascimento de Lima
Pedro Nascimento de Lima

I’m a Ph.D. Candidate in Policy Analysis working at the intersection of Simulation Modeling (ABM, Systems Dynamics, Microsim), Policy Analysis and Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty.