Simulation Modeling

Too Good to Be True? Evaluation of Colonoscopy Sensitivity Assumptions Used in Policy Models

This paper examines the validity of the CRC-SPIN model and colonoscopy sensitivity assumptions.

Should We Mitigate or Suppress the Next Pandemic? Time-Horizons and Costs Shape Optimal Social Distancing Strategies

This paper uses a mathematical optimization procedure to find optimal social distancing strategies under a wide range of scenarios.

Reopening California: Seeking robust, non-Dominated COVID-19 exit strategies

This paper uses the Robust Decision Making approach to stress-test California's COVID-19 reopening strategy considering a range of uncertainties.

Modeling Infectious Behaviors: The Need to Account for Behavioral Adaptation in COVID-19 Models

This essay discusses the need to account for behavioral adaptation in COVID-19 models.

Reopening Under Uncertainty: Stress-Testing California's COVID-19 Exit Strategy

We used the Robust Decision Making approach to stress-test California's COVID-19 reopening strategy. This Perspective presents lessons learned from these experiments and outlines four characteristics of the best reopening strategies.

Will the United States Declare Freedom from COVID-19 Too Soon?

We analyzed what could happen with COVID-19 deaths in the United States if restrictions all go away on July 4. Fully reopening the economy before Biden's vaccination target was met doubled the average number of COVID-19 deaths between Independence Day and the end of the year.

Could Periodic Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Strategies Produce Better COVID-19 Health and Economic Outcomes?

This paper documents our COVID-19 transmission model and explores the performance of periodic NPI strategies.

The Health and Economic Impacts of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Address COVID-19 - A Decision Support Tool for State and Local Policymakers

This model and tool helps local decision makers understand the impacts of Nonpharmaceutical interventions to tackle COVID-19.